Glass Ball Instead Of Econometrics:

Why the predictions of forecasters no good Berlin the spring report of the Institute of economic research forecast a decline in GDP of six percent for 2009. The DGB co-convenor Michael Sommer warned social unrest like in the 1930s in the face of the deep recession. The situation is comparable with the numbers from the years of economic crisis in 1930, 1931 and 1932, summer said on Wednesday evening on the ARD show hart aber fair ». May would people now turn away from politics or radicalize. According to Udo Nadolski, Managing Director of the Dusseldorf consulting firm Harvey Nash, not with the economic depression of the Weimar Republic, one could compare the numbers of the spring report. This is scientifically very unserious and for the people of the time, who have gone through hardship, hunger and misery, »an insult, criticized the staff expert Nadolski.

Also would the differences in level in addition to the change in GDP be taken into account. We would have to shrink around 90 percent, to get into a situation like around 80 years ago. It can be no question but. Even if we are thrown back on the level of prosperity of 2005 or 2006, we can handle very well the economic downturn », Nadolski says. In addition, the forecasters had located in recent years regularly also. Nadolski wonders why this should be different this time ».

Maybe the Econometricians should try it with a glass ball, to create valid economic data. Similarly, authors Richard Gaul and Christiane Goetz judging the Cicero. The collective rush of crisis while finding parallels with 1929. Only this comparison is wrong. Namely, growth rates and not substance levels be compared ». The percentage record slump would say little is known about the real effects. The benchmark remains crucial and we shrink just on a very high level. From the highest that have ever given us the history of the world. The level of prosperity is to a Zigfaches over the 80 years ago », so horse and Goetz. What you see – the life expectancy, quality of food, the level of education, the housing situation, the industrial capital stock we live so dramatically much richer than the generation of 1929 « , Gaul and Goetz explained. The predictions, this crisis will not only difficult, but also long, could be deceiving. As more and more evidence suggests that a recovery could faster ahead than most think. Many companies have greatly scaled back their inventories, so demand jumping to very quickly a lot must be produced again. You see this stock cycle effect currently at the consequences of the cash for clunkers of auto industry »explain Gaul and Goetz. The main framework would promise good messages for a speedy recovery: the extremely low oil and commodity prices, historically low interest rates, political stability, the multibillion-dollar stimulus and the absence of large conflicts could contribute to a surprisingly quick recovery of the economy. Already, the ZEW economic index suggests that re-ignites the economy. He’s to 16.5 points to plus 13 increased for the first time since July 2007 is back in positive territory. This is a message of NeueNachricht.

Comments are closed.